The Rules of Investing
Buy Australian for the next recovery phase

Buy Australian for the next recovery phase

November 20, 2020

Guest: Jun Bei Liu, Lead Portfolio Manager, Tribeca Alpha Plus Fund

After a tumultuous 2020, the world is (slowly) beginning to recover. With two successful vaccines announced, and the virus largely quashed in Asia and the Pacific, the time for ‘lockdown stocks’ is behind us, and the ‘recovery play’ has begun. But not everywhere is recovering at the same pace. While early progress from Europe’s lockdowns appear positive, the region has a long way to go. And the US has barely begun. Australia, however, is perfectly placed with the virus under control both locally, and in our biggest trading partner, China.

Jun Bei Liu, Lead Portfolio Manager of the Tribeca Alpha Plus Fund, reckons that Australian equities “are in a pretty sweet spot, compared to global.” With consumer and business confidence rising, the de-leveraging of household and corporate balance sheets, and historically low rates, all the ingredients are there for a strong performance from Australian equities.

In this episode of The Rules of Investing podcast, we discuss the re-opening trade and how to get exposure to it, how the ‘barbell’ approach helps to maximise returns while managing risk, and Jun Bei shares a high quality company she's recently added to the portfolio at a very attractive price.

The biggest trends to watch in the next 5 years

The biggest trends to watch in the next 5 years

October 23, 2020

Guest: Amit Lodha, Fidelity.

Identifying key global trends in business and investing requires an overview of the world that few investors can achieve. But with an army of Fidelity analysts at his back, and a truly global focus, Amit Lodha is uniquely positioned to spot and act on these trends. When searching for these trends, Amit wants to find keywords - what he calls his "anomaly watch". Six years ago, the keywords popping up on his anomaly watch were "personalisation" and "simplification". Those trends led him to investments in companies like Facebook, Apple, and Google.

More recently, the words that keep popping up on the anomaly watch are “collaboration” and “decentralisation”. In this episode of The Rules of Investing podcast, he explains the significance of these trends for the years ahead. We also hear about the time he met legendary investor Peter Lynch, and the lesson Peter shared with him.

3 early warning signs it’s time to change your view

3 early warning signs it’s time to change your view

October 9, 2020

When a stock has been in your portfolio for a while, it’s easy to get attached to the position and ‘anchor’ yourself to old information. In recent years, Simon Shields, Principal at Monash Investors, has shown repeatedly his willingness to change his view. He’s made money on both the long side and the short side on stocks like Kogan, Qantas, and Corporate Travel Management. So when I recently sat down with him for the latest Rules of Investing podcast, naturally, I wanted to know how he went about it. He pointed to three key “early warning signs” that he looks for that indicate it could be time to reduce a position:

  1. A spike in short interest
  2. An unexpected downgrade by the company (not by analysts)
  3. When a company fails to meet their ‘signposts’ that are expected along the way.

He expands on all these points in this episode. He also shares an under-the-radar small cap that’s perfectly positioned for an outstanding 2021, and he nominates a controversial stock as one he’d hold if the market were closed.

Sell-offs are a buying opportunity. Don’t get off the train

Sell-offs are a buying opportunity. Don’t get off the train

September 25, 2020

Investors remain nervous after the massive sell off in February and March, but Matthew Kidman from Centennial Asset Management says that any sell off (such as we've seen in the week since this was recorded) should be treated as a buying opportunity.

"If the market does come away in September, use it as a buying opportunity. Now is not the time to get off the train. Now is the time to buckle in, ride a few bumps out, and we're gonna go again."

In this episode of The Rules of Investing podcast, we discuss the curious origins of Buy Hold Sell, why investors should treat any sell off as a buying opportunity, and we get his view on a range of Aussie small caps, including OohMedia, Adairs, and iCar Asia.

What the ‘smart money’ is saying about Australia’s future

What the ‘smart money’ is saying about Australia’s future

September 11, 2020

Guest: Jay Sivapalan, Head of Australia Fixed Income, Janus Henderson Group

Fixed income investors have long held a reputation in markets as the ‘smart money’. With a focus on stability, income, and capital protect, and a propensity for complicated formulas and spreadsheets, fixed income investors often have a better idea of what’s happening in markets than just about anyone else. So, when Jay Sivapalan, one of the most respected fixed income managers in the country talks about the future of the Australian economy, interest rates, and housing, you can be sure there’ll be some outstanding insights. This conversation was no exception.

In this week’s episode of The Rules of Investing podcast, we hear why investing is so different today to when he joined the industry 20 years ago, and he shares his views on what could lie ahead over the next 12 months.

Did Buffett really change his mind on gold?

Did Buffett really change his mind on gold?

August 28, 2020

Guest: Jordan Eliseo, Perth Mint.

Headlines in recent weeks have touted an about-turn by Warren Buffett as he finally bought gold after years of criticising. But is that really what happened?

In this week’s episode of The Rules of Investing podcast, I spoke to gold expert Jordan Eliseo, Manager of Listed Products and Investment Research at the Perth Mint. He points out that it was a gold mining company (Barrick Gold), not physical gold itself that Berkshire Hathaway purchased.

“They’ve bought a gold mining equity, which, to me, is entirely consistent with their mandate. It’s not surprising to me that they’d buy a gold mining company.”

We also discuss gold's strong performance this year and whether it can continue, and he shares some indicators that should tell us when the bull market in gold is getting long in the tooth.

Tapping into research from the world’s best investors

Tapping into research from the world’s best investors

August 14, 2020

Guest: Sam Granger, Totus Capital

Whether you’re investing in ASX small caps, global large caps, or somewhere in between, one challenge that all investors face is how to narrow down a huge universe of potential companies into a manageable list for research. Sam Granger, Portfolio Manager at Totus Capital, knows this challenge all too well. With a small investment team, the Totus High Conviction Fund covers small and large cap companies both in Australia and overseas. One strategy he uses to narrow down the field, is the draw on the research of other great investors.

“We always do our own research, and I’d never buy a stock just because they bought it. But why not focus on businesses that other great investors have already said they like? Apple’s a great example. Buffett bought Apple in 2016… You could’ve made three or four times your money just by following Buffett into Apple.”

In this episode, we discuss why he doesn't engage in short selling, and he shares two stocks that appear to be underappreciated by the market.

How Ophir spot offshore growers (before they get big)

How Ophir spot offshore growers (before they get big)

July 31, 2020

Guest: Andrew Mitchell, Ophir Asset Management.

In recent years, there's been an increasing trend of successful Australian businesses expanding offshore. In prior decades, offshore expansion attempts had rarely gone well. But now, Australian businesses ranging from fintech to retailers have seen their fortunes grow overseas.

Andrew Mitchell, Director and Portfolio Manager at Ophir Asset Management, says one key reason has been the falling costs building a brand overseas. While once, a huge team of marketing and salespeople would’ve been required to launch a brand offshore. But today, this can be done with a small team using Google or Facebook ads.

In this podcast, Andrew tells us how identify these offshore growers, why A2 Milk could double, or even triple its market share, and he gives us an update on his #1 stock for 2020.

 

A key question most investors ignore, do you?

A key question most investors ignore, do you?

July 17, 2020

Guest: Troy Angus, Paradice Asset Management.

Investors ask themselves many different questions when considering an investment thesis; how fast can the company grow? How expensive is it? How good are the management? But one question they general fail to consider is, 'am I wrong?' Troy Angus, Head of the Australian Equities Fund at Paradice Asset Management, says it’s important for investors to always consider the counter factual.

“When a stock goes up, and you don’t own it, prima-facie, you’re wrong. You should be constantly reassessing the investment case and wondering, ‘what did I get wrong here?”

This is a question they were forced to ask themselves again recently, as expensive technology stocks on the ASX have continued to rally.

Hear the rest of the story in this week’s episode of The Rules of Investing podcast. He also shares one thematic that’s a major beneficiary of recent policies, and his preferred exposure to that theme.

Chris Stott launched a new boutique. Then COVID hit.

Chris Stott launched a new boutique. Then COVID hit.

July 2, 2020

Even at the best of times, building a new portfolio from nothing is a challenging task. But for Chris Stott, Chief Investment Officer at 1851 Capital, the challenge was truly unique. After a 12-month break from the industry, he raised $80 million for his new firm (including a chunk of his own money) in late 2019. February 1st looked like a good time to start investing, given his track record of outperforming during reporting season. For the first three weeks, everything was business as usual. But in the final week of February, fear took over as reality sunk in for markets.

In this week’s episode of The Rules of Investing podcast, Stott tells us how he reacted to the changed market conditions, whether he thinks the worst has passed for markets, and he shares one Aussie small cap that's riding tailwinds from the COVID shutdowns.

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