The Rules of Investing

Dr David Allen from Plato Investment Management examines how behavioural biases shape investment decisions. His presentation covers overconfidence, the hot hand fallacy, loss aversion, anchoring, base rates, herding and confirmation bias.
Topics include:
What a sharp rebound in short positions taught Allen about complacency.
Why he questions the persistence of exceptional company growth.
How waiting to break even can influence decisions about losing holdings.
How a hypothetical IPO price can become a valuation anchor.
Why the search for the next NVIDIA should include historical success rates.
How Plato uses automated red flags to challenge company assessments. Allen concludes with the practical checks he advocates: express conviction as a probability, seek evidence that could disprove the thesis, reassess the portfolio from cash and systematise the investment process.
Chapters
0:00 The seven deadly sins of investing
1:45 Overconfidence: how good an investor are you?
5:52 The hot hand fallacy: chasing exceptional growth
8:08 Loss aversion: the urge to break even
10:47 Anchoring: when a price shapes your valuation
11:40 Base rates: could this be the next Nvidia?
14:09 Herding: the pull of the crowd
15:38 Confirmation bias and company red flags
17:21 Building a process to keep bias in check
General Advice Warning
Livewire gives readers access to information and educational content provided by financial services professionals and companies (”Livewire Contributors”). Livewire does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under section 911A(2)(eb) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any advice given. Any advice on this site is general in nature and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making a decision please consider these and any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Livewire has commercial relationships with some Livewire Contributors.

A handful of powerful megatrends are driving trillions in investment. Here’s what’s behind them and how investors can gain exposure.
Speakers:
EQT’s Sam Franklin focused on the energy infrastructure needed to power the digital economy.
Munro Partners’ Nick Griffin argued the AI boom is only getting started.
Janus Henderson Investors’ Daniel Sullivan made the case for a new resources supercycle.
VanEck’s Jamie Hannah highlighted a transformation in global defence spending.
TIME CODES
00:15 – Sam Franklin (EQT)– The energy opportunity
02:50 – Energy demand is accelerating
05:05 – Why solar, batteries and gas are winning
07:06 – What EQT looks for in energy investments
11:04 – Nick Griffin (Munro Partners) – AI: The next great platform shift
13:49 – Why AI compute demand is exploding
16:44 – The ‘shovels’ powering the AI boom
19:43 – AI applications: Where the winners could emerge
23:00 – Daniel Sullivan (Janus Henderson Investors) – The new resources supercycle
25:45 – Critical minerals take centre stage
28:23 – Why copper is the backbone
30:39 – Building a resources portfolio
32:09 – Jamie Hannah (VanEck) – The global defence supercycle
34:09 – Where defence spending is going
36:01 – How investors can play defence
39:03 – The case for diversified defence exposure
41:11 – The OODA loop: Investing ahead of the market
General Advice Warning
Livewire gives readers access to information and educational content provided by financial services professionals and companies (”Livewire Contributors”). Livewire does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under section 911A(2)(eb) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any advice given. Any advice on this site is general in nature and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making a decision please consider these and any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Livewire has commercial relationships with some Livewire Contributors.

The winds of change are upon us. The forces currently shaping Australian and global markets feel more whipsaw and shape-shifting than ever before and investors today must contend with a far broader set of variables.
As Livewire’s Chris Conway put it: "When I was coming up, admittedly many moons ago in markets, there was only three things that you needed to pay attention to have a handle on the macro, and that was inflation, interest rates, and growth. Now we have to worry about policy mistakes, housing, AI, deglobalisation and US exceptionalism, to name but a few."
So is it the same game with more moving parts, or is it genuinely more complex? That’s the question we put to our panellists at Livewire Live:
Diana Mousina, Deputy Chief Economist at AMP;
Damien Boey, portfolio strategist at Wilson Asset Management; and
Roy Keenan, co-head of Australian Fixed Income of Yarra Capital.
Please note this panel was filmed 22nd September, one week prior to the RBA's September board meeting announcement.
Timecodes:
00:00 - Introduction & Market Complexity Poll
01:05 - Is the RBA Risking Over-Tightening Rates?
03:04 - Inflation Persistence vs. Consumer Resilience
05:09 - What the Bond Market Signals for RBA Policy
06:52 - Predictions for the Upcoming September RBA Meeting
08:51 - Housing Market Outlook & Correction Risks
11:26 - Banking Buffers & Equity Valuations
15:18 - Government Debt, Deficits & Central Bank Independence
21:22 - Asset Allocation in a High-Deficit Environment
23:05 - The Impact of AI, Data Infrastructure & Global Trade
28:11 - Rethinking US Exceptionalism & Australian Opportunities
34:16 - Q&A: Corporate Balance Sheets, Rate Cut Calls & Credit Markets
General Advice Warning
Livewire gives readers access to information and educational content provided by financial services professionals and companies (”Livewire Contributors”). Livewire does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under section 911A(2)(eb) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any advice given. Any advice on this site is general in nature and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making a decision please consider these and any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Livewire has commercial relationships with some Livewire Contributors.

5 Shocking Predictions brings together bold investment forecasts spanning Australian shares, bonds, Chinese technology, geopolitics and energy.
The presentations explore:
Why Dougal Maple-Brown thinks CBA could halve from its highs, and how CSL’s rebound illustrates valuation changes.
The case for bonds becoming equity diversifiers again if growth slows.
A forecast that China could produce the next trillion-dollar companies through AI progress and policy-backed investment.
A contentious interpretation of US–China rivalry, alongside an argument that bonds could rival shares over 30 years.
The case for an Australian gas boom as coal capacity retires and electricity and LNG feedstock needs create pressure for new supply.
Chapters
0:00 Why valuations matter: lessons from market giants
3:04 CSL’s valuation reset
4:14 Testing CBA’s valuation premium
7:08 US debt and the case for revisiting 60/40
10:38 The slowdown trade few investors want
14:34 China and the next trillion-dollar club
17:35 China’s chip ambitions and policy-backed contenders
22:03 Hormuz through the lens of US–China rivalry
26:42 Underwater data centres, robots and inflation
29:15 Could bonds rival shares over 30 years?
31:17 Australia’s looming electricity gap
34:53 The case for a new Australian gas boom
38:27 Gas exploration hotspots and investment implications
General Advice Warning
Livewire gives readers access to information and educational content provided by financial services professionals and companies (”Livewire Contributors”). Livewire does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under section 911A(2)(eb) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any advice given. Any advice on this site is general in nature and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making a decision please consider these and any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Livewire has commercial relationships with some Livewire Contributors.

The ASX 200 looks expensive, economic growth is subdued, and higher interest rates are putting renewed pressure on valuations. But that doesn’t mean there’s no value left in the Australian market.
At Livewire Live, First Sentier Investors’ Dushko Bajic, L1 Capital’s James Hawkins and Ausbil Investment Management’s Arden Jennings were asked where they are still finding opportunities on the ASX.
All three are looking beyond the market’s largest companies, but their approaches differ considerably.
Bajic is finding opportunities in businesses exposed to major investment cycles, including electrification, AI infrastructure, defence and mining. Hawkins is backing a concentrated portfolio of companies where he sees clear paths to earnings growth, alongside defensive dividend payers. Jennings, meanwhile, sees an opportunity emerging in beaten-up Australian software stocks.
They also debate the outlook for interest rates, the impact of higher oil prices, what investors should avoid in the current environment and whether the ASX will be higher or lower 12 months from now. And when asked for their best ideas, they nominate three very different stocks: logistics software company WiseTech Global, electrical contractor Genus Plus and The Lottery Corporation.
Time Codes
0:00 – Market backdrop: why the ASX has lagged global markets
1:16 – AI, electrification and defence plays in small caps
4:34 – Three buckets: US earnings, commodities and defensives
6:54 – Index concentration and the case for active management
10:19 – How many more rate hikes, and how to position
16:12 – Reporting season takeaways
18:08 – CSL: when all the news is in the price
19:59 – Second-half skews and results-day volatility
22:00 – Where is the value? Small industrials and resources
24:40 – Why Australian software has lagged the US
28:30 – Capital management: buybacks vs dividends
31:40 – Stock pick: WiseTech
35:10 – Stock pick: Lottery Corporation
38:02 – Stock pick: Genus Plus and the index inclusion trade
40:18 – Audience Q&A: copper and software laggards
43:00 – Where will the ASX be in 12 months?
General Advice Warning
Livewire gives readers access to information and educational content provided by financial services professionals and companies (”Livewire Contributors”). Livewire does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under section 911A(2)(eb) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any advice given. Any advice on this site is general in nature and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making a decision please consider these and any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Livewire has commercial relationships with some Livewire Contributors.

Five years ago, owning the right handful of global technology stocks could transform a portfolio. The challenge today is deciding whether the next five years will reward investors for sticking with those winners or looking somewhere else entirely. That was the question put to Antipodes Partners Portfolio Manager Vihari Ross and Ophir Asset Management Co-Founder and Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Mitchell at Livewire Live.
Both believe opportunities remain within AI. But neither thinks the answer is simply buying the companies dominating today's headlines.
Ross is finding value further down the semiconductor supply chain, in businesses wrongly assumed to be AI casualties and in old-economy companies benefiting from powerful capital expenditure cycles. Mitchell, meanwhile, is looking for small and mid-cap companies where earnings, market share or structural advantages matter more than the prevailing narrative.
When asked to nominate the companies investors could wish they owned five years from now, they produced very different answers: a semiconductor giant, a US senior-living operator, and a little-known software company followed by just one analyst.
Time Codes
00:13 – Why look beyond Australia for growth?
02:20 – The advantages of investing globally
03:54 – Why global small caps offer a bigger opportunity set
06:11 – Revisiting Vihari’s Alphabet call
07:52 – The big questions occupying Ophir
09:21 – Where Antipodes sees value today
11:06 – Navigating market concentration and the AI trade
14:44 – Finding overlooked AI beneficiaries
19:23 – Opportunities beyond the AI boom
20:51 – Weir: Playing the mining capex cycle
22:23 – Ophir’s best performer: Silicon Motion
23:47 – Antipodes’ best performers
25:38 – Antipodes’ latest buys: Weir and Booking
27:20 – Ophir’s latest buy: APi Group
29:17 – Vihari’s stocks to own for the next five years
31:27 – Andrew’s five-year pick: Red Violet
32:46 – Why higher yields haven’t crushed US valuations
35:52 – Closing remarks
General Advice Warning
Livewire gives readers access to information and educational content provided by financial services professionals and companies (”Livewire Contributors”). Livewire does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under section 911A(2)(eb) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any advice given. Any advice on this site is general in nature and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making a decision please consider these and any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Livewire has commercial relationships with some Livewire Contributors.

Soul Patts has been investing for more than a century – but CEO Todd Barlow says today's market demands a very different playbook. Speaking with Livewire Markets Co-Founder James Marlay at Livewire Live 2026, Barlow explains why Soul Patts is sitting on roughly 20% cash, why its exposure to listed equities has fallen dramatically, and why higher interest rates have raised the hurdle for taking risk. Barlow also discusses the opportunities Soul Patts missed in US technology, where it believes it has an edge in private credit, and why asset allocation can matter more than picking the next winning stock.

We’re bringing the best of Livewire Live directly to your podcast feed!
Over the next week, we’re releasing a series of special episodes recorded live from our annual event, featuring an incredible lineup of Australia’s leading investors.
The topics range from asset allocation and investor psychology to Aussie and global shares, megatrends and of course our annual 5 shocking predictions.
We’ll return to our regular format in mid-October.