The Rules of Investing

The ASX 200 looks expensive, economic growth is subdued, and higher interest rates are putting renewed pressure on valuations. But that doesn’t mean there’s no value left in the Australian market.
At Livewire Live, First Sentier Investors’ Dushko Bajic, L1 Capital’s James Hawkins and Ausbil Investment Management’s Arden Jennings were asked where they are still finding opportunities on the ASX.
All three are looking beyond the market’s largest companies, but their approaches differ considerably.
Bajic is finding opportunities in businesses exposed to major investment cycles, including electrification, AI infrastructure, defence and mining. Hawkins is backing a concentrated portfolio of companies where he sees clear paths to earnings growth, alongside defensive dividend payers. Jennings, meanwhile, sees an opportunity emerging in beaten-up Australian software stocks.
They also debate the outlook for interest rates, the impact of higher oil prices, what investors should avoid in the current environment and whether the ASX will be higher or lower 12 months from now. And when asked for their best ideas, they nominate three very different stocks: logistics software company WiseTech Global, electrical contractor Genus Plus and The Lottery Corporation.
Time Codes
0:00 – Market backdrop: why the ASX has lagged global markets
1:16 – AI, electrification and defence plays in small caps
4:34 – Three buckets: US earnings, commodities and defensives
6:54 – Index concentration and the case for active management
10:19 – How many more rate hikes, and how to position
16:12 – Reporting season takeaways
18:08 – CSL: when all the news is in the price
19:59 – Second-half skews and results-day volatility
22:00 – Where is the value? Small industrials and resources
24:40 – Why Australian software has lagged the US
28:30 – Capital management: buybacks vs dividends
31:40 – Stock pick: WiseTech
35:10 – Stock pick: Lottery Corporation
38:02 – Stock pick: Genus Plus and the index inclusion trade
40:18 – Audience Q&A: copper and software laggards
43:00 – Where will the ASX be in 12 months?
General Advice Warning
Livewire gives readers access to information and educational content provided by financial services professionals and companies (”Livewire Contributors”). Livewire does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under section 911A(2)(eb) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any advice given. Any advice on this site is general in nature and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making a decision please consider these and any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Livewire has commercial relationships with some Livewire Contributors.

Five years ago, owning the right handful of global technology stocks could transform a portfolio. The challenge today is deciding whether the next five years will reward investors for sticking with those winners or looking somewhere else entirely. That was the question put to Antipodes Partners Portfolio Manager Vihari Ross and Ophir Asset Management Co-Founder and Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Mitchell at Livewire Live.
Both believe opportunities remain within AI. But neither thinks the answer is simply buying the companies dominating today's headlines.
Ross is finding value further down the semiconductor supply chain, in businesses wrongly assumed to be AI casualties and in old-economy companies benefiting from powerful capital expenditure cycles. Mitchell, meanwhile, is looking for small and mid-cap companies where earnings, market share or structural advantages matter more than the prevailing narrative.
When asked to nominate the companies investors could wish they owned five years from now, they produced very different answers: a semiconductor giant, a US senior-living operator, and a little-known software company followed by just one analyst.
Time Codes
00:13 – Why look beyond Australia for growth?
02:20 – The advantages of investing globally
03:54 – Why global small caps offer a bigger opportunity set
06:11 – Revisiting Vihari’s Alphabet call
07:52 – The big questions occupying Ophir
09:21 – Where Antipodes sees value today
11:06 – Navigating market concentration and the AI trade
14:44 – Finding overlooked AI beneficiaries
19:23 – Opportunities beyond the AI boom
20:51 – Weir: Playing the mining capex cycle
22:23 – Ophir’s best performer: Silicon Motion
23:47 – Antipodes’ best performers
25:38 – Antipodes’ latest buys: Weir and Booking
27:20 – Ophir’s latest buy: APi Group
29:17 – Vihari’s stocks to own for the next five years
31:27 – Andrew’s five-year pick: Red Violet
32:46 – Why higher yields haven’t crushed US valuations
35:52 – Closing remarks
General Advice Warning
Livewire gives readers access to information and educational content provided by financial services professionals and companies (”Livewire Contributors”). Livewire does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under section 911A(2)(eb) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any advice given. Any advice on this site is general in nature and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making a decision please consider these and any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Livewire has commercial relationships with some Livewire Contributors.

Soul Patts has been investing for more than a century – but CEO Todd Barlow says today's market demands a very different playbook. Speaking with Livewire Markets Co-Founder James Marlay at Livewire Live 2026, Barlow explains why Soul Patts is sitting on roughly 20% cash, why its exposure to listed equities has fallen dramatically, and why higher interest rates have raised the hurdle for taking risk. Barlow also discusses the opportunities Soul Patts missed in US technology, where it believes it has an edge in private credit, and why asset allocation can matter more than picking the next winning stock.

We’re bringing the best of Livewire Live directly to your podcast feed!
Over the next week, we’re releasing a series of special episodes recorded live from our annual event, featuring an incredible lineup of Australia’s leading investors.
The topics range from asset allocation and investor psychology to Aussie and global shares, megatrends and of course our annual 5 shocking predictions.
We’ll return to our regular format in mid-October. 

The S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs, record IPOs are hitting the market, and investors have enjoyed a stellar three years of double-digit returns. It’s fair to say that the party in global equity markets is in full swing.
The yield on the US 10-year bond has surged to 5.11% - the highest level since July 2007. We all know how that party ended.
​In this episode of The Rules of Investing, T. Rowe Price's Iona Dent explains why she believes the earnings story in equities outweighs concerns around rising bond yields and walks through the five dimensions of T. Rowe Price’s ‘bubble watch’ framework.
 
Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSenseThis latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense.Discover decision-grade AI now - Visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Lazard Asset Management's Dr Philipp Hofflin explains how increasing volatility and reduced liquidity are creating opportunities, takes a look back at the “fallen angel” stocks he bought a year ago, and picks another beaten up stock that’s great value.
 
Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSenseThis latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense.Discover decision-grade AI now - Visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

In this episode of The Rules of Investing, we discuss what value investing looks like in 2026, why market concentration has reached levels seen only a handful of times in history, and whether investors have been too quick to sort companies into AI winners and losers. We also explore the investment lessons Ross has carried through a 25-year career, and the US senior housing company she would be comfortable owning if markets closed for the next five years.
 
Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSenseThis latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense.Discover decision-grade AI now - Visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.
 
Chapters:
0:00 Intro
0:40 How actuarial thinking shapes investing
6:10 Reviewing investment cases at Antipodes
9:58 What pragmatic value means in 2026
18:15 Why the index looks risky
22:25 Are hyperscalers actually expensive?
25:47 How concentrated is the AI trade?
34:05 Have investors misjudged AI winners and losers?
44:23 AI’s impact on energy demand
50:43 Lessons from a 25-year investing career
54:35 What investors are getting wrong
57:20 The one stock Vihari would hold for five years

​No doubt fundamentals matter over time, but the extreme moves that we see in financial markets can make for a hair-raising ride and can often shake weak hands from their positions.
In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Sebastian Mullins offers real-world examples that highlight why paying attention to big-picture headlines matters and explains his value, cycle, liquidity (VCL) framework, which informs his asset allocation decisions. The episode also digs into why he is constructive on global equity markets, how he is playing it and presents a breakdown of the different tools that he uses to reduce risk in his portfolio.
 
Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSenseThis latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense.Discover decision-grade AI now - Visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.